Catherine Murray w Eric Nuttall June 29 2021 and other ideas from other analysts

 https://youtu.be/rMypF9k1PKo

-oil supply crunch eminent.

-by 2050, population estimated to increase by 26%. So will oil demand. 

-today, June 29 2021 World using 97 MBD of oil. (previous estimate was 2021 uses 95 MBD)

-Activists have created a supply crunch via KXL. Exxon board invasion abetted by Brookfield Renewables ( a beneficiary in govt handouts of renewable projects), govt decrees-EV replacement of ICE's and the banning of ICE's, Dutch court on emissions of Shell. etc.

-Capex reduced. (Q3 2020 capex 1/2 of Q3 2019)  It takes 4 to 6 years to get oil from global offshore non-OPEC sites. These are 1 in 4 barrels consumed and deplete at 6% per year! Twenty five percent increase in next 3 years to offset supply crisis.   

-Global supply will increase by 1 million barrels per day every year for at least a decade, 2045 estimate to 110 barrels per day.

-all previous demand increase ( 6 million barrels per day)  was provided almost solely by shale. Shale lost 1/2 a trillion bucks and no one is interested in trying that again.

-45% of oil demand is road transport with 60% being  light vehicle transport (27% of total oil use).

-the 27% is what EV's are purported to replace inspite a lack of cobalt/lithium etc for EV's. (105% of world Cobalt and 85% of world Lithium to achieve this currently.) Expect battery prices to soar.

-A purposeful induced  scarcity of oil will need to be created  (via reduced oil investment and massive carbon taxes) to raise operation costs  of ICE's such that EV's will be comparably priced for the masses. 

Why Oil Companies’ Fall From Favor Could Cause Next Price Spike Jan 29 2021

 "Total global investment into oil and gas exploration and production fell by 34% last year to $261 billion, the lowest since 2004, according to a December report from the International Energy Forum and the Boston Consulting Group.

Annual spending at that level won’t satisfy the world’s energy needs in the coming years, the report said. Even if the recovery in oil demand from the pandemic is only slight, the world would require 27 million barrels a day of new oil and gas supply by 2022 to offset production declines at existing fields.

Annual investment needs to be 25% higher over the next three years to stave off a supply crisis, the report estimated. That’s much faster than the pace of recovery after the 2014 to 2016 slump.

The coming year will be crucial in determining whether the industry is capable of rising to that challenge. The IEF report estimated that upstream investment would drop by another 20% in 2021, but prices have already rallied since it was published last year and “capex is likely to be higher than our initial estimates,” said Jamie Webster, senior director at the Boston Consulting Group."-Why Oil Companies’ Fall From Favor Could Cause Next Price Spike - Bloomberg